Northern lights trip odds calculator
Choose where, when and how long. You get the share of real stays, in 11 years of hourly records, that saw the aurora at least once.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Better odds the same week
Best weeks in Tromsø
Tap a week to put it on the pass.
4-night odds by month, popular destinations
Chance of at least one good night on a 4-night stay, 2015–2025.
| Destination | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tromsø | 63% | 68% | 70% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 56% |
| Rovaniemi | 43% | 43% | 44% | 50% | 58% | 59% | 59% |
| Abisko | 65% | 76% | 77% | 71% | 85% | 84% | 83% |
| Reykjavík | 57% | 68% | 65% | 69% | 65% | 68% | 59% |
| Levi | 53% | 54% | 51% | 55% | 70% | 72% | 78% |
| Saariselkä | 59% | 73% | 67% | 71% | 81% | 80% | 84% |
| Alta | 71% | 79% | 77% | 78% | 88% | 84% | 83% |
| Kiruna | 61% | 72% | 65% | 65% | 77% | 77% | 84% |
| Lofoten | 69% | 74% | 73% | 72% | 82% | 81% | 68% |
| Akureyri | 58% | 69% | 64% | 69% | 63% | 73% | 69% |
| Fairbanks | 49% | 66% | 71% | 79% | 89% | 87% | 74% |
| Yellowknife | 94% | 86% | 91% | 97% | 99% | 100% | 99% |
Darker green = better odds. Tap a destination for its week-by-week chart and tonight's forecast.
About the trip odds
It is the share of real past stays, same place, same week of the year and same number of nights, in each of 11 years (2015–2025), that had at least one hour that was dark, mostly clear and had auroras strong enough to see from there.
Because clouds are the real limit. Even under the auroral oval, coastal Norway and Iceland see long cloudy spells. Inland and dry places (Swedish Lapland, interior Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland's Kangerlussuaq) score highest.
A bit. 2015–2025 covers one full 11-year solar cycle (the quiet minimum around 2019 and the peak around 2024–2025), so the odds are a long-run average. In the far north auroras show on most clear nights in any year; further south you depend more on storms, which are more common near the peak and in the years after it.