Will I see the northern lights in Fairbanks tonight?
Yes, good chance
Clear spells and enough aurora activity line up around 18:00. Look north, away from lights.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (America/Anchorage). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Fairbanks?
In 2015–2025, Fairbanks averaged 89 good nights a year out of 150 clear, dark ones. The best month was January: 89% of 4-night stays saw auroras at least once.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 3.3 h | 0.6 h | 7% | 21% | 25% | 45% |
| September | 7.2 h | 1.5 h | 19% | 41% | 49% | 65% |
| October | 10.9 h | 3.0 h | 30% | 58% | 66% | 83% |
| November | 13.5 h | 5.1 h | 36% | 65% | 71% | 82% |
| December | 15.0 h | 7.5 h | 44% | 70% | 79% | 93% |
| January | 14.2 h | 8.4 h | 51% | 81% | 89% | 99% |
| February | 11.8 h | 6.6 h | 49% | 78% | 87% | 96% |
| March | 8.4 h | 4.8 h | 41% | 65% | 74% | 87% |
| April | 4.2 h | 2.0 h | 26% | 53% | 61% | 80% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Better odds nearby
Places within 700 km of Fairbanks with more good nights a year.
Aurora tours from Fairbanks
A guide with a car can drive to wherever the clouds break, which beats any forecast. On a cloudy night that is often the difference between seeing nothing and seeing a show.
Fairbanks northern lights: questions
Yes. Fairbanks sits at 65.0° magnetic latitude, where auroras show on most clear, dark nights (about Kp 1.8 and up). In 2015–2025 it averaged 89 good nights a year: clear, dark and active enough.
January: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 89% of the time. Nights are dark enough from August to April. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 1.8. We worked that out from Fairbanks's magnetic latitude (65.0°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, away from town lights.
In January, 2 nights gave 69%, 4 nights gave 89%, 7 nights gave 99% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Fairbanks, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.