Will I see the northern lights in Anchorage tonight?
Probably not
Clouds and quiet aurora activity (Kp 2.0 forecast, 3.6 needed here) both work against you tonight.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (America/Anchorage). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Anchorage?
In 2015–2025, Anchorage averaged 25 good nights a year out of 145 clear, dark ones. The best month was February: 41% of 4-night stays saw auroras at least once.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 4.0 h | 1.0 h | 2% | 5% | 8% | 14% |
| September | 8.0 h | 1.6 h | 5% | 13% | 16% | 26% |
| October | 10.9 h | 3.4 h | 10% | 27% | 35% | 53% |
| November | 13.2 h | 5.7 h | 12% | 23% | 29% | 39% |
| December | 14.8 h | 5.3 h | 9% | 24% | 30% | 44% |
| January | 13.7 h | 6.9 h | 9% | 23% | 28% | 41% |
| February | 11.7 h | 5.2 h | 15% | 32% | 41% | 60% |
| March | 8.8 h | 4.6 h | 12% | 28% | 35% | 47% |
| April | 5.2 h | 2.2 h | 7% | 18% | 21% | 32% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Better odds nearby
Places within 700 km of Anchorage with more good nights a year.
Coldfoot
149/yrDawson City
118/yrChena Hot Springs
114/yrFairbanks
89/yrAurora tours from Anchorage
A guide with a car can drive to wherever the clouds break, which beats any forecast. On a cloudy night that is often the difference between seeing nothing and seeing a show.
Anchorage northern lights: questions
Yes. Anchorage sits at 60.9° magnetic latitude, where auroras show on active nights (about Kp 3.6 and up). In 2015–2025 it averaged 25 good nights a year: clear, dark and active enough.
February: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 41% of the time. Nights are dark enough from August to April. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 3.6. We worked that out from Anchorage's magnetic latitude (60.9°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, away from town lights.
In February, 2 nights gave 24%, 4 nights gave 40%, 7 nights gave 60% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Anchorage, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.