Will I see the northern lights in Winnipeg tonight?
Probably not
Clouds and quiet aurora activity (Kp 1.3 forecast, 4.6 needed here) both work against you tonight.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (America/Winnipeg). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Winnipeg?
In 2015–2025, Winnipeg averaged 16 good nights a year out of 261 clear, dark ones. The best month was September: 22% of 4-night stays saw auroras at least once.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 7.0 h | 4.2 h | 5% | 12% | 16% | 27% |
| September | 9.0 h | 4.5 h | 8% | 18% | 22% | 35% |
| October | 10.9 h | 4.4 h | 6% | 16% | 20% | 33% |
| November | 12.5 h | 4.1 h | 6% | 13% | 16% | 24% |
| December | 13.6 h | 4.9 h | 3% | 9% | 12% | 20% |
| January | 12.7 h | 5.8 h | 2% | 8% | 9% | 14% |
| February | 11.5 h | 6.3 h | 6% | 14% | 19% | 31% |
| March | 9.7 h | 4.6 h | 6% | 16% | 21% | 32% |
| April | 7.6 h | 3.0 h | 2% | 7% | 8% | 13% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Aurora tours from Winnipeg
A guide with a car can drive to wherever the clouds break, which beats any forecast. On a cloudy night that is often the difference between seeing nothing and seeing a show.
Winnipeg northern lights: questions
Yes. Winnipeg sits at 58.4° magnetic latitude, where auroras show on active nights (about Kp 4.6 and up). In 2015–2025 it averaged 16 good nights a year: clear, dark and active enough.
September: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 22% of the time. Nights are dark enough from August to April. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 4.6. We worked that out from Winnipeg's magnetic latitude (58.4°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, low on the horizon, away from town lights.
In September, 2 nights gave 13%, 4 nights gave 22%, 7 nights gave 35% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Winnipeg, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.