Will I see the northern lights in Þingvellir tonight?
Maybe
Clear spells and enough aurora activity line up around 22:00. Look north, away from lights.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (Atlantic/Reykjavik). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Þingvellir?
In 2015–2025, Þingvellir averaged 66 good nights a year out of 123 clear, dark ones. The best month was December: 69% of 4-night stays saw auroras at least once.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 3.5 h | 0.9 h | 12% | 34% | 43% | 58% |
| September | 7.4 h | 1.9 h | 23% | 48% | 57% | 76% |
| October | 10.8 h | 3.3 h | 30% | 60% | 68% | 80% |
| November | 13.5 h | 4.2 h | 28% | 57% | 65% | 81% |
| December | 14.9 h | 5.2 h | 32% | 61% | 69% | 84% |
| January | 13.9 h | 4.6 h | 27% | 55% | 65% | 80% |
| February | 11.7 h | 3.1 h | 26% | 59% | 68% | 87% |
| March | 8.6 h | 2.9 h | 28% | 49% | 59% | 72% |
| April | 4.3 h | 1.1 h | 19% | 41% | 50% | 70% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Aurora tours from Þingvellir
A guide with a car can drive to wherever the clouds break, which beats any forecast. On a cloudy night that is often the difference between seeing nothing and seeing a show.
Þingvellir northern lights: questions
Yes. Þingvellir sits at 64.0° magnetic latitude, where auroras show regularly through the dark season (about Kp 2.3 and up). In 2015–2025 it averaged 66 good nights a year: clear, dark and active enough.
December: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 69% of the time. Nights are dark enough from August to April. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 2.3. We worked that out from Þingvellir's magnetic latitude (64.0°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, away from town lights.
In December, 2 nights gave 49%, 4 nights gave 69%, 7 nights gave 84% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Þingvellir, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.