Will I see the northern lights in Churchill tonight?
Probably not
Auroras should be active enough (Kp 2.7 forecast, 1 needed here), but clouds cover most of the night.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (America/Winnipeg). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Churchill?
In 2015–2025, Churchill averaged 170 good nights a year out of 200 clear, dark ones. The best month was February: 99% of 4-night stays saw auroras at least once.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 4.8 h | 1.9 h | 51% | 83% | 91% | 99% |
| September | 8.2 h | 2.5 h | 48% | 85% | 92% | 99% |
| October | 10.9 h | 2.6 h | 49% | 84% | 90% | 97% |
| November | 13.0 h | 4.5 h | 55% | 87% | 94% | 99% |
| December | 14.0 h | 6.0 h | 63% | 89% | 92% | 96% |
| January | 13.6 h | 7.3 h | 75% | 95% | 98% | 100% |
| February | 11.6 h | 7.4 h | 82% | 98% | 99% | 100% |
| March | 9.1 h | 4.3 h | 70% | 94% | 98% | 100% |
| April | 5.9 h | 2.1 h | 47% | 78% | 83% | 94% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here. Tap a month for its own page: year by year, best weeks and how long to stay.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Hotels and tours in Churchill
A guide with a car can drive to wherever the clouds break, which beats any forecast. On a cloudy night that is often the difference between seeing nothing and seeing a show.
Churchill northern lights: questions
Yes. Churchill sits at 67.0° magnetic latitude, where auroras show on almost every clear night (about Kp 1 and up). In 2015–2025 it averaged 170 good nights a year: clear, dark and active enough.
February: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 99% of the time. Nights are dark enough from August to April. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 1. We worked that out from Churchill's magnetic latitude (67.0°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, away from town lights.
In February, 2 nights gave 95%, 4 nights gave 99%, 7 nights gave 100% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Churchill, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.