Will I see the northern lights in Kirkenes tonight?
Unlikely
Auroras should be active enough (Kp 2.0 forecast, 1.1 needed here), but clouds cover most of the night.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (Europe/Oslo). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Kirkenes?
In 2015–2025, Kirkenes averaged 65 good nights a year out of 86 clear, dark ones. The best month was January: 82% of 4-night stays saw auroras at least once.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 5.6 h | 1.2 h | 26% | 57% | 66% | 83% |
| October | 10.6 h | 1.9 h | 25% | 53% | 62% | 78% |
| November | 14.2 h | 2.0 h | 24% | 49% | 59% | 76% |
| December | 16.3 h | 2.0 h | 27% | 57% | 69% | 85% |
| January | 14.8 h | 3.1 h | 36% | 72% | 82% | 94% |
| February | 11.9 h | 2.3 h | 32% | 67% | 77% | 92% |
| March | 7.6 h | 2.2 h | 38% | 69% | 77% | 89% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Better odds nearby
Places within 700 km of Kirkenes with more good nights a year.
Aurora tours from Kirkenes
A guide with a car can drive to wherever the clouds break, which beats any forecast. On a cloudy night that is often the difference between seeing nothing and seeing a show.
Kirkenes northern lights: questions
Yes. Kirkenes sits at 66.8° magnetic latitude, where auroras show regularly through the dark season (about Kp 1.1 and up). In 2015–2025 it averaged 65 good nights a year: clear, dark and active enough.
January: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 82% of the time. Nights are dark enough from September to March. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 1.1. We worked that out from Kirkenes's magnetic latitude (66.8°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, away from town lights.
In January, 2 nights gave 58%, 4 nights gave 82%, 7 nights gave 94% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Kirkenes, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.