Will I see the northern lights in Jasper tonight?
Probably not
Skies look partly clear, but auroras are forecast to be quiet: Kp 2.0, and Jasper needs about Kp 4.6.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (America/Edmonton). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Jasper?
Auroras in Jasper need a geomagnetic storm (about Kp 4.6). In 2015–2025 that lined up with a clear, dark sky on about 10 nights a year, so treat a sighting here as a bonus, not a plan.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 6.3 h | 3.0 h | 4% | 9% | 12% | 20% |
| September | 8.9 h | 3.0 h | 3% | 9% | 11% | 19% |
| October | 11.0 h | 3.1 h | 3% | 8% | 10% | 17% |
| November | 12.5 h | 2.8 h | 4% | 9% | 12% | 18% |
| December | 13.0 h | 3.6 h | 3% | 6% | 8% | 14% |
| January | 13.0 h | 4.1 h | 1% | 6% | 7% | 12% |
| February | 11.4 h | 4.4 h | 3% | 8% | 11% | 19% |
| March | 9.6 h | 3.6 h | 5% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
| April | 7.2 h | 2.9 h | 4% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Every night you could have seen them, 2015–2025
115 nights in 11 years were clear and dark in Jasper while auroras reached far enough, by our estimate from NASA cloud data and the Kp record. The strongest: 10 May 2024 (Kp 8.3).
The 10 strongest nights
- 10 May 2024 Kp 8.3
- 10 Oct 2024 Kp 7.7
- 16 Mar 2015 Kp 7.7
- 1 Jun 2025 Kp 7
- 16 Sep 2024 Kp 7
- 11 Aug 2024 Kp 7
- 10 Sep 2015 Kp 7
- 31 Dec 2024 Kp 6.7
- 22 Mar 2023 Kp 6.7
- 26 Feb 2023 Kp 6.7
A "night you could have seen them" = at least one hour that was dark, mostly clear and with Kp at or above the Kp 4.6 that Jasper needs. Look north, low on the horizon, away from town lights: the northern lights here are usually a glow that a phone camera picks up better than your eyes.
Better odds nearby
Places within 700 km of Jasper with more good nights a year.
Jasper northern lights: questions
Rarely. Jasper sits at 58.5° magnetic latitude, so auroras need about Kp 4.6, which means a geomagnetic storm. In 2015–2025 it averaged 10 nights a year with a clear, dark sky and auroras strong enough to see.
March: a 4-night stay then had at least one good night 15% of the time. Nights are dark enough from August to April. The best hours are usually around local midnight.
About Kp 4.6. We worked that out from Jasper's magnetic latitude (58.5°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, low on the horizon, away from town lights.
In March, 2 nights gave 8%, 4 nights gave 15%, 7 nights gave 25% odds of at least one good night (2015–2025). Clouds come in spells, so more nights help more than you might think.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Jasper, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.