Will I see the southern lights in Hobart tonight?
Probably not
Clouds and quiet aurora activity (Kp 1.3 forecast, 6.8 needed here) both work against you tonight.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (Australia/Hobart). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Hobart?
Auroras in Hobart need a geomagnetic storm (about Kp 6.8). In 2015–2025 that lined up with a clear, dark sky on about 1 night a year, so treat a sighting here as a bonus, not a plan.
Every night you could have seen them, 2015–2025
12 nights in 11 years were clear and dark in Hobart while auroras reached far enough, by our estimate from NASA cloud data and the Kp record. The strongest: 11 May 2024 (Kp 8.7). Most came near the solar maximum of 2024–2025.
- 7 Oct Kp 7.3
- 8 Sep Kp 8.3
- 12 May Kp 7
- 4 Nov Kp 7.7
- 23 Apr Kp 8.3
- 5 Nov Kp 7.3
- 19 Apr Kp 7
- 11 May Kp 8.7
- 10 Oct Kp 8.3
- 11 Oct Kp 7.7
- 1 Jan Kp 8
- 12 Nov Kp 7.7
A "night you could have seen them" = at least one hour that was dark, mostly clear and with Kp at or above the Kp 6.8 that Hobart needs. Look south, low on the horizon, away from town lights: the southern lights here are usually a glow that a phone camera picks up better than your eyes.
Hobart southern lights: questions
Rarely. Hobart sits at 53.4° magnetic latitude, so auroras need about Kp 6.8, which means a geomagnetic storm. In 2015–2025 it averaged 1 night a year with a clear, dark sky and auroras strong enough to see (the aurora australis, low in the southern sky).
There is no reliable season: auroras this far north come with strong geomagnetic storms, which can happen in any dark month. Watch the live forecast and the Kp index instead of planning a trip around them.
About Kp 6.8. We worked that out from Hobart's magnetic latitude (53.4°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look south, low on the horizon, away from town lights.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Hobart, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.