Will I see the northern lights in Grand Marais tonight?
Probably not
Clouds and quiet aurora activity (Kp 2.0 forecast, 5.4 needed here) both work against you tonight.
Hour by hour tonight
Loading tonight's hours…
Times are local (America/Chicago). Only hours with the sun below −6° are shown. Kp forecast: NOAA SWPC. Clouds: MET Norway.
Planning a trip to Grand Marais?
Auroras in Grand Marais need a geomagnetic storm (about Kp 5.4). In 2015–2025 that lined up with a clear, dark sky on about 5 nights a year, so treat a sighting here as a bonus, not a plan.
Chance on a 4-night stay, week by week
By month
| Month | Dark / night | Clear & dark | 1 night | 3 nights | 4 nights | 7 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 7.3 h | 3.7 h | 1% | 4% | 7% | 12% |
| September | 9.2 h | 3.8 h | 4% | 10% | 13% | 22% |
| October | 11.0 h | 3.7 h | 1% | 4% | 5% | 9% |
| November | 12.4 h | 3.1 h | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| December | 13.0 h | 2.0 h | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| January | 12.7 h | 4.0 h | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| February | 11.5 h | 4.7 h | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| March | 9.7 h | 4.1 h | 2% | 7% | 9% | 14% |
| April | 7.9 h | 2.5 h | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% |
"Clear & dark" = average hours per night with the sun below −12° and mostly clear sky. Odds = share of stays with at least one clear, dark hour when auroras were strong enough here.
Chance of at least one clear, dark night with auroras strong enough to see, from what really happened in the same week in each of 11 years.
Every night you could have seen them, 2015–2025
52 nights in 11 years were clear and dark in Grand Marais while auroras reached far enough, by our estimate from NASA cloud data and the Kp record. The strongest: 10 May 2024 (Kp 9).
- 6 Jan Kp 6.3
- 16 Mar Kp 5.7
- 17 Mar Kp 6
- 21 Mar Kp 6.3
- 12 May Kp 5.7
- 22 Jun Kp 6.3
- 14 Aug Kp 6
- 26 Aug Kp 6.3
- 8 Sep Kp 6
- 19 Sep Kp 7
- 6 Oct Kp 6
- 31 Dec Kp 6
- 1 May Kp 5.7
- 7 May Kp 6.3
- 1 Sep Kp 6
- 2 Sep Kp 5.7
- 13 Oct Kp 5.7
- 21 Apr Kp 5.7
- 7 Sep Kp 8
- 27 Sep Kp 6.7
- 7 Nov Kp 6.3
- 19 Apr Kp 6
- 25 Aug Kp 7.3
- 10 Sep Kp 6
- 13 May Kp 5.7
- 28 Feb Kp 5.7
- 19 Mar Kp 5.7
- 3 Nov Kp 7.7
- 3 Sep Kp 6.3
- 26 Feb Kp 6
- 14 Mar Kp 5.7
- 23 Mar Kp 8
- 23 Apr Kp 8
- 15 Jun Kp 6
- 18 Sep Kp 6.3
- 10 May Kp 9
- 12 May Kp 6
- 11 Aug Kp 7
- 11 Sep Kp 6.7
- 16 Sep Kp 7.3
- 7 Oct Kp 7
- 8 Mar Kp 5.7
- 21 Mar Kp 5.7
- 31 May Kp 7.7
- 1 Jun Kp 6
- 14 Sep Kp 6.7
- 29 Sep Kp 7
- 1 Oct Kp 6.7
- 5 Nov Kp 6.7
- 7 Nov Kp 6
- 11 Nov Kp 7.7
- 12 Nov Kp 7.3
A "night you could have seen them" = at least one hour that was dark, mostly clear and with Kp at or above the Kp 5.4 that Grand Marais needs. Look north, low on the horizon, away from town lights: the northern lights here are usually a glow that a phone camera picks up better than your eyes.
Grand Marais northern lights: questions
Rarely. Grand Marais sits at 56.6° magnetic latitude, so auroras need about Kp 5.4, which means a geomagnetic storm. In 2015–2025 it averaged 5 nights a year with a clear, dark sky and auroras strong enough to see.
There is no reliable season: auroras this far south come with strong geomagnetic storms, which can happen in any dark month. Watch the live forecast and the Kp index instead of planning a trip around them.
About Kp 5.4. We worked that out from Grand Marais's magnetic latitude (56.6°) with a rule calibrated against the Finnish Meteorological Institute's sighting statistics. Look north, low on the horizon, away from town lights.
Every 10 minutes we take NOAA's Kp forecast and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for Grand Marais, add the sun and moon, and score each hour of tonight. The verdict is the best hour. How it works explains the calibration.